Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
