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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a peace deal negotiated with American diplomats are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to present the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's absence from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature is expected to consider security guarantees and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “imminently.” Subsequently, the United States would hold consultations with Moscow, potentially followed by summit-level talks as soon as this weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five documents. Several pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” the president commented to the press. He stated that these assurances would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, US officials did not provide specific details regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or what would happen if Moscow sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the United States does not intend to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European nations said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring safer seas, potentially by operating inside its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would serve as guarantees equivalent to Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Russian government said it had not received the specifics of the plans for security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would never accept forces of Nato countries being stationed in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the issue of land. One proposal involves Kyiv relinquishing the areas of the Donbas region it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president remarked after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russia would not advance, with the resulting zone becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has suggested it could use internal security formations instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” stated Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution such as a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the plans are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face exactly what we are encountering on our flight right now – turbulence,” said the president, recording the comments after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with more weapons if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he added.