Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
